The Blue Jackets have their 2014 NHL Entry Draft selections settled and on the way to prospect camp, took care of one of the major question marks of their early offseason, and are in process of finishing up another - so what's next for GM Jarmo Kekalainen and the rest of the organization?

It's been a busy weekend for Jarmo Kekalainen. Fresh off turning R.J. Umberger's trade request into Scott Hartnell, the Blue Jackets GM also locked his backup goalie in for another season at a quite reasonable $600k, managed to scavenge back his 5th round pick via Nikita Nikitin, and came to terms with one of his two major RFA defensemen.

Oh, and there was also the matter of the draft itself, where he managed to grab an impressive young forward and some major boosts to the team's defensive pipeline.

Ordinarily I'd say he's earned a rest, but with Free Agency beginning on July 1st, there's no time for sipping margaritas beside the pool, right?

The answer to that is: Well, maybe.

Free Agency Shakeup

One of the biggest pieces of news to come out of the draft was the report that Buffalo used their compliance buyout on defenseman Christian Ehrhoff - one of the final remaining artifacts of the summer of Pegulamania. Suddenly an unrestricted free agent, Ehrhoff is a proven quantity at 31, able to run the power play and munch top line minutes. There was some talk that Columbus was taking a look at the German d-man at last season's trade deadline, but it's worth remembering that was also while the team thought they might be without Fedor Tyutin and Ryan Murray for quite some time.

With the team's top four defensemen all healthy, I don't think they're likely to go for Ehrhoff as a FA, but this sudden shift in the free agency market seems likely to set off a lot of other reactions that Columbus may want to keep an eye on. (There's also the matter of teams like Boston or Philly who are trying to open some cap room, but that's more likely going to involve some of the clubs desperately trying to make it up to the cap floor.)

Looking Inward

Internally, the team has until the evening of June 30th to qualify their remaining Restricted Free Agents, or allow them to walk.

With Dalton Prout done, and indications from Aaron Portzline that a deal is close for David Savard, that leaves three (or four, depending how you look at it) roster players still unsettled, and just over a half dozen other players in the farm system that the team will need to make a decision on.

Ryan Johansen is obviously the big one - the team and his representatives are said to be working towards a deal, but it hasn't sounded terribly close. While I think the team is sincere about being willing to match any offer sheet if this stretches to July 1st, I also think they'd prefer to get this finished before that becomes a potential problem.

Below that tier you have three guys who saw at least some roster time this season - Matt Frattin, who came over in the Gaborik deal, Corey Tropp, and Tim Erixon.

I don't really see Frattin as likely to stick here, though the team may surprise us (his QO would cost the team about $890k), but the organization really seemed to like what they saw in Tropp this year - as did many of the fans. He was making just above league minimum, so it would only take about $650k to retain his rights while they worked out a deal. The team's forward depth has grown significantly, but Tropp seems like a good, inexpensive option to fill out the fourth line.

That leaves Tim Erixon, and I genuinely don't know what the plan is here. There's no question that Erixon has been productive down in Springfield, but he hasn't shown that he can push Savard or Prout out of the way for a permanent roster spot. Does the team give him a little more room to prove he can make an impact at the NHL level? It's not necessarily a bad thing to have a reliable guy ready as your first call up, but everyone believed he had more potential than that, going back to his time in the Rangers organization, and he hasn't taken that step.

Qualifying him would cost about the same as Frattin - I don't think that's an either/or situation, but you're still putting money on the books that might need to go elsewhere.

A little further down the depth chart, there's another group of free agents who the team may decide to thin down: Forwards Oliver Gabriel, Jake Hansen, Sean Collins, and Dana Tyrell, & D-men Will Weber, Cody Goloubef, Anton Blomqvist, and Ilari Melart.

There have been indications that Melart intends to return to Europe, and it wouldn't shock me if Blomqvist does the same. I think that the team is almost guaranteed to QO Goloubef, given the way he's been able to step in when needed the last two seasons. (In fact, I almost wonder if he's jumped Erixon on the depth chart). Weber also seems likely, so that would leave the four forwards to consider.

Gabriel impressed a lot of people a few years ago on a camp invite, but has struggled since leaving Junior, including a couple of trips down to the ECHL. He seems like a good candidate for an AHL deal, but I don't see him receiving another two-way contract right now. Collins, on the other hand, has turned in some impressive work since leaving Cornell, and has been given a couple of quick looks at the NHL level by the club. I'd call him another guy who is likely to be qualified.

Jake Hansen seemed to need an adjustment period, but started putting up some points for Springfield last year, and I think the team is likely to give him a bit more time to see what they really have. Tyrell, acquired from Syracuse, has been the very definition of a journeyman player, and I feel like he's another guy likely to get an AHL deal if he's retained at all.

Shopping List?

If that all shakes out, the team's lineup will look something like this:

Hartnell - Johansen - Horton

Foligno - Dubinsky - Jenner

Calvert - Anisimov - Atkinson

Boll - Letestu - Tropp

====

Tyutin - Johnson

Wizniewski - Murray

Prout - Savard

====

Bobrovsky

McIlhenney

There's not a lot of glaring needs there.

If the team is serious about bringing back UFA Derek McKenzie, there's going to be at least one forward sitting in the press box every night. The same goes if Erixon or another d-man is qualified with a one way deal.

If the team makes any moves in free agency it would seem like they'd mostly be looking to fill depth in Springfield. A move for a top six guy like Matt Moulson or even a depth defender like Mark Fayne would mean pushing someone out of that depth chart via waivers or moving them in some kind of a trade. If the team was intending to do that, why not just re-sign Jack Skille or Nick Schultz? (Well, OK, maybe not Schutlz, but you get the point.)

If the team sees an opportunity for a signing or trade that's too good to pass up, it's going to mean significant changes to the lineup, and I don't know if the front office is really interested in that.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if the team's focus is on settling Ryan Johansen, cleaning up the remaining RFAs, and then looking at how the market is developing as free agency opens. After all, in chaos, there is opportunity.

After having a breakout year in Columbus, Ryan Johansen and the Blue Jackets are having trouble agreeing on the type of contract for the restricted free agent.

The Columbus Blue Jackets took a major step forward last season, and at the forefront of their improvement was Ryan Johansen, a 21-year-old forward who was 11th in the league with 33 goals. But per Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch, Johansen, a restricted free agent, isn't close to a new deal with the Blue Jackets. From Portzline:

Contract negotiations between the Blue Jackets and their top offensive player are going nowhere, even after a meeting this weekend in Philadelphia between Johansen's agent, Kurt Overhardt, and assistant general manager Bill Zito.

The road block to further negotiations appears to be the term.

"We're not even close," Johansen told The Dispatch. "They say ‘We want to sign you to a ‘bridge' deal.' We say ‘We don't want to do a ‘bridge,' and that's the end of it."

The Blue Jackets want to sign Johansen to a two- or three-year contract, which would expire when he still was a restricted free agent.

Bridge contracts have become trendy across the league, with teams giving a shorter term, middle-of-the-road deal to younger, budding players. The Sharks gave Logan Couture a two-year, $5.75 million contract back in 2012 before giving him five years, $30 million when that contract ended. The Rangers gave Derek Stepan a two-year, $6.15 million deal last summer.

But in Johansen's eye, per Portzline, his production puts him ahead of that bridge curve, and wants a longer term and to become an unrestricted free agent when that deal expires.

"I've earned more than a two- or three-year deal with my play," Johansen said. "It seems a little disrespectful, to be honest.

"I want to play in Columbus, and I want to be a Blue Jacket, but I want to get this done. It seems like a slap in the face."

The Blue Jackets are nearly $20 million under the cap, and Johansen can begin negotiating with other teams when free agency begins on Tuesday.

Today is the first day of the rest of your summer.

The NHL free agency period is officially upon us, with signings allowed to legally begin (wink wink) at noon today, July 1. (Watch live coverage via nhl.com/Sportsnet over here.)

Will the Islanders be active? Mildly, probably. Expect a goalie. Don't expect the moon (though honestly, outside of Paul Stastny, I can't tell who the "shoot the moon" candidates are this summer).

• I think it's worth noting, to temper annual hopes: Truly rewarding cap-space-for-player trades are rare. [LHH]
• Arthur Staple talks to Garth Snow before July 1 opens. [Newsday]
• Referenced in that piece: The lottery ticket approach to goaltending: How to exploit an uncertain market - SBNation.com
• Here is the 1993-94 Jamie McLennan jersey. Man, suddenly that is so long ago. [3rd String Goalie]
• Islanders Draft Party reactions: [7th Woman | Isles Official]

Around the World

• The top NHL free agents, not in slideshow form. [SB Nation]
• Looks like Ryan Johansen doesn't want a bridge deal, and the Blue Jackets do. We've seen this kind of standoff before; usually the player loses. Blue Jackets management was good at pulling off bridge deals when they were in St. Louis.
• The Devils had an easier itime with Adam Larsson, entering a one-year deal. [NHL]
• By Corsi, who are the key defensemen for each team in the East? [Sporting News]
  
• Hoppy's broken family situation continues: P.A. Parenteau has been traded for -- guffaw -- the ghost of Daniel Briere. Beat writer insight followed by hilarious analysis: "Parenteau wasn’t Roy’s kind of player. I won’t put words in his mouth, but the sense I got was that he just felt Parenteau was a little too one-way of a player, perhaps not intense enough too" ... and then this: "First off, Briere may be slowing down some, or a lot depending on whom you ask, but the guy is a battler." [Denver Post]
• Comparing Carl Gunnarsson with Roman Polak. [PPP]
  

Dejan Kovacevic, as best I can tell from my unfortunate encounters with his work over the years, is one of those blowhard generalist sports columnists who is paid to bloviate on multiple sports, none of them well. So yes, this exchange made me laugh:

.@Dejan_Kovacevic actually... More recently than Pittsburgh if you want to focus on accuracy... Not that you worry about that in your job.

— AntSanPhilly (@AntSanPhilly) June 27, 2014

Well anyway, enough media rips. Enjoy the free agent frenzy. Consider this your open thread. And remember to source your rumors/trades if you're sharing them.

Cats add another gritty forward to the mix.

The Florida Panthers have inked center Derek MacKenzie to a three-year, $3.9 million contract. The 33-year-old has spent the last seven years as a member of the Columbus Blue Jackets organization. MacKenize seems to slot in as the Cats' fourth-line center and is expected to be one of the team's penalty-killers.

MacKenzie was originally drafted by the Atlanta Thrashers in 1999. He enjoyed a fine junior career with OHL's Sudbury Wolves and won a bronze medal as a member of Canada's 2001 WJC entry.

This looks like a pretty solid signing as MacKenzie is a good fourth-liner who can contribute on offense a bit, but with with Cats needing more goals and Dale Tallon stating he was looking for a couple defenders, one wonders if this was all that necessary.

While everyone else is still chasing Matt Niskanen, the Tampa Bay Lightning have signed the best UFA defenseman available in Anton Stralman to a 5 year, 20 million dollar contract.

The report first came from a Swedish report that former New York Ranger Anton Stralman has chosen the Tampa Bay Lightning:

Anton Strålman går till Tampa Bay. Låter som ett 5-årskontrakt med 4+ miljoner i årslön. #nhlse#twittpuck

— Linus Hugosson (@linushugosson) July 1, 2014

It was later confirmed by several reliable North American sources:

That is confirmed RT @erlendssonTBO Swedish outlet reporting #tblightning have signed Anton Stralman, 5 years at $4 million per

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 1, 2014

Anton Stralman is not an offensive defenseman -- his career high in points was 34 with the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2009-10 -- but he's a darling of the hockey analytics community for his outstanding puck possession numbers the past few seasons.

The best part of the deal isn't the fact that Stralman will either form a puck possession juggernaut with Victor Hedman (Swedish Corsi Power Duo) or fix whatever is wrong with Matt Carle on the second pairing: it's that the deal is so reasonable. 5 years for a 27-year old, prime-aged defenseman, at just $4 million per.

Magic.

UPDATE

The original terms weren't 100% accurate:

As per @Real_ESPNLeBrun, Stralman deal is $22.5M over 5 years, not $20M.

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) July 1, 2014

Still a steal for a guy like Stralman, who excels at moving the puck out of trouble and into scoring areas. While he lacks flashy offensive tools, he is reliable, efficient, and comes much, much cheaper than other premiere guys on the market.

The official release from the team:

TAMPA BAY -The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed free agent defenseman Anton Stralman (STROHL-muhn, AN-tawn) to a five-year contract today, vice president and general manager Steve Yzerman announce.

Stralman, 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, spent the previous three seasons with the New York Rangers. Last season he recorded a goal and 13 points with a plus-9 in 81 games in New York. Stralman averaged 19:24 in ice time per game in 2013-14 which ranked fourth on the team. His 12 assists and 104 shots on goal were third among all Ranger defensemen. Stralman helped New York to the 2014 Stanley Cup Final, playing in 25 postseason contests. He recorded five assists and averaged 21:03 in ice time per game, while his plus-4 rating was second among Ranger blue-liners.

A native of Tibro, Sweden, Stralman has played in 394 career NHL games with the Rangers, Columbus Blue Jackets and Toronto Maple Leafs. During his seven-year NHL career he has accumulated 18 goals and 112 points with 159 penalty minutes. He is a combined plus-32 in the previous three seasons in New York. Stralman has played in 55 career Stanley Cup Playoff games, all with the Rangers in the previous three seasons, recording three goals and 11 points.

Stralman was drafted by the Maple Leafs in the 7th round, 216th overall, at the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.

Syracuse Crunch fans will probably get to see a familiar face with the signing of the forward. Blunden spent the majority of the 2013-2014 AHL season with the Hamilton Bulldogs, netting 18 goals and 37 points.

Although not guaranteed to be with the Crunch this season, since Tampa Bay's 4th line is looking a little lonely these days, many are assuming that the signing of forward Mike Blunden is meant to bring good things to Syracuse. If he is meant for Syracuse, then the fun thing here is that Crunch fans know exactly what to expect. And they have every reason to be excited about it.

LIGHTNING SIGN FREE AGENT RW MIKE BLUNDEN TO ONE-YEAR CONTRACT

TAMPA BAY –The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed right wing Mike Blunden to a one-year, two-way contract today, vice president and general manager Steve Yzerman announced.

Blunden, 6-foot-4, 216 pounds, played in seven games with the Montreal Canadiens in 2013-14.  He spent the majority of the season with the Hamilton Bulldogs of the American Hockey League with 18 goals and 37 points.  Blunden ranked third on the Bulldogs for points and second for goals.

A native of Toronto, Ontario, Blunden has appeared in 102 NHL games with Montreal, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Chicago Blackhawks.  He has recorded four goals and eight points during his NHL career, which also includes one playoff game with the Canadiens in 2013.  Blunden has played in 379 career AHL games with Hamilton, the Syracuse Crunch, Rockford IceHogs and Norfolk Admirals, posting 83 goals and 187 points.

Blunden was drafted by Chicago in the second round, 43^rd overall, at the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.

Crunch fans will remember Blunden from the organization's Columbus Blue Jackets days. He was a part of the 2008-2009 Syracuse squad, where he played in 39 games and totaled 16 points. He was traded to Syracuse mid-season and was the first step in an attempt to turn the team around after a one-win December. He immediately took hold among the fan base and in the dressing room, and was a big part of a season improvement plan that saw the Crunch fall just two points short of a playoff spot.

The following season, Blunden played in 25 games for Syracuse, all during the months of January and February. He registered 16 points during that time span and played in the first AHL outdoor game in league history, the Mirabito Outdoor Classic. He assisted on both goals the Crunch scored during on route to their win that day, including netting the sole assist on Alexandre Picard's history-making first goal. During that season, Blunden was coached by current Crunch assistant coach Trent Cull, so his connections to the organization are still alive and well.

Blunden has been a pain in the Crunch's neck for years now, as he's one of those former players who seems to score every single time he returns to the War Memorial. He's also gotten into some more recent and rather memorable scraps with players like Philippe Paradis. Blunden is a tough skater and a hard competitor. No matter where he ends up in the organization, it's exciting to see him back again.

On the second day of free agency, the Senators made a move to shore up the Binghamton Senators.

After making waves on the first day of free agency by trading Jason Spezza, the Senators were relatively quiet on the second day. The only addition to the team came through the signing of centre Carter Camper to a one-year, two-way contract. The value of the contract has not yet been revealed.

Camper was an undrafted forward who played four years for the Miami Redhawks in the Central Collegiate Hockey Association. He finished with 69 goals and 114 assists in 156 career college games, earning him a spot with the Boston Bruins' AHL affiliate, the Providence Bruins at the end of 2011. Last season, he was traded mid-way through the season to Columbus Blue Jackets for Blake Parlett, playing solely with the Springfield Falcons. Through 189 AHL games, Camper has 41 goals and 107 assists. He also played 3 games for the Boston Bruins in 2011-12. Incidentally, he has one career NHL goal, scored against the Ottawa Senators.

Hockey's Future gives Camper a 7.0/10 for talent, but a D for likelihood of success. He is deemed to be intelligent and creative as a forward, but is small at 5' 9" and 176 lbs, and is below average in skating speed.

The Senators also formally announced the re-signings ofCole Schneider, Chris Wideman, and Michael Sdao.

Happy 4th of July! The Blue Jackets brought fruit salad and a pretty awesome depth signing to your backyard picnic.

After Tuesday's news that Derek MacKenzie had left the organization as a free agent to take term and money down in Florida, a lot of Blue Jackets fans were concerned about the impact to the team's bottom six - particularly for D-Mac's penalty killing / shorthanded threat.

The team's stated goal is that they expect at least one or two guys in the prospect pool to 'grow from within' and compete for the spots vacated by guys like MacKenzie, Jack Skille, and Blake Comeau, but they clearly have an eye out for potential fits from outside, too.

Case in point, today's Independence Day fireworks when the club announced that they've come to terms with former Pittsburgh C Brian Gibbons on a 1 year, 2 way deal.

The REALLY astute may recall Gibbons from when he was playing with Cam Atkinson back at BC, but for most of you that name sounds familiar because he shredded us in Game 2 against the Penguins before he left the game due to injury.

Gibbons spent about half the year in the AHL with W-BS and the rest up with the big club, where he put up 5 goals and 12 assists in the regular season, and added two goals (both against Columbus) and an assist in his 8 Stanley Cup playoff appearances.

As if that wasn't a pretty decent run, he then went back down to the Baby Pens after Pittsburgh was knocked out, and put up another goal and a couple more assists while helping them reach the AHL's Eastern Conference Final.

Not a terrible year for a guy who was hitting unrestricted free agency, and it's clear that he got Columbus' attention.

We haven't heard the money details yet, but since he was making $550k for the Pens last season, it's safe to assume he got at least a modest raise out of that. Edit: Capgeek is now reporting it as a 750k contract at the NHL level, and will pay him $300,000 in the AHL.

So where does he fit in Columbus? Undeniably a top line guy in the AHL, Gibbons has spent time on Sidney Crosby's wing...and he's spent time grinding out penalties or taking fourth line minutes next to guys like Marcel Goc and Craig Adams.

I am sure the organization would be pleasantly surprised if he sparks chemistry with someone like Ryan Johansen or Brandon Dubinsky in camp, but I suspect the plan is to have Gibbons push both Artem Anisimov and Mark Letestu a bit. Like Letestu, Gibbons can play up the middle or on the wing, so it wouldn't shock me if some combination of those two and Tropp/D'Amigo/Boll/? ended up as the fourth line. Almost guaranteed to get PK minutes thanks to his skating ability and nose for opportunity, I also could see the coaching staff giving him a look on the second PP unit.

At very worst, Springfield just got a guy who can do stuff like this, and Columbus has a reliable first callup who can be slotted into virtually any role.

Oh - and a pretty significant thumb in the eye of their recent playoff opponent. Can't forget that.

Happy fourth of July, indeed!

As the dog days of the off-season loom, some unanswered questions have Blue Jackets fans wringing their hands. Are their fears justified?

The draft is history, and the gluttony of July 1st is in the rear-view mirror.  History teaches that there are some significant deals to be made out there, as teams begin to get their arms around what they have and the inevitable jockeying for cap room picks up.  Still, the vast majority of transactions are in the books, and fans  -- rightly or wrongly -- start squabbling over what was done, what should have been done, and the consequences of the action/inaction of their club's front office. It's no different here in Columbus, where the anxiety level seems to be higher than warranted for a club that made some noise in the playoffs and is on the clear road up.  Let's take a bit closer look, and see what lies beneath the collective increase in blood pressure.

Of course, #1 on the suspect list is the Ryan Johansen situation.  Johansen was quoted as characterizing the Columbus offers as a "slap in the face", which set off alarm bells throughout Blue Jackets Nation, and spurred fears that RyJo would be heading to another city.  First, from a purely technical matter, Johansen isn't going anywhere unless the Blue Jackets decide that he's going elsewhere.  Johansen is a restricted free agent, without arbitration rights.  No offer sheets came his way, so he either plays in Columbus next season, or he doesn't play in the NHL. Add the fact that Jarmo Kekäläinen has stated in no uncertain terms that the club will sign the lanky forward, and the situation objectively seems to be in hand. Still, he remains unsigned, and the acerbic language attributed to Johansen has people nervous.

Let's travel back in time to 2009, when Rick Nash was up for the renewal of his deal, and had some less than flattering things to say about the quality of the offer made by then-GM Scott Howson.  The fans went to Defcon 2 immediately. Naturally, the deal got done in a matter of days.  In more recent history, Sergei Bobrovsky's camp was underwhelmed by the club's offer.  That deal got done as well.  It's all about negotiations, and negotiations are about leverage.  The only leverage that a restricted free agent without arbitration rights has -- other than his talent -- is the public perception he can create about the situation.  Make the fans nervous, the fans put pressure on the club.  It's that simple.

Truly, the Bobrovsky situation is a much better example than the Nash story.  Nash was seven years into his career, and had a Rocket Richard Trophy on his mantle. Bobrovsky had a couple of mediocre seasons for the Flyers before winning the Vezina in a strike-shortened campaign.  Bobrovsky had the additional leverage of the KHL.  Johansen had two mediocre seasons before his breakout this season, when he tied for 11th in the NHL in goals with 33.  In both circumstances, the players were coming off of their entry level deals, and came to the bargaining table with some impressive deeds . . . for one season.

Such is the dilemma faced by General Managers in these types of RFA deals.  There's no question the GM wants to keep the player, but has only one year of top performance to deal with.  The club wants a bridge deal -- one for shorter term and lower dollars, ending while the player is still in RFA status.  The player wants the big payday now.  It's the most difficult type of deal to broker, simply because of all of the moving parts and variables.  For a UFA, it's just dollars and term, for the most part.  Here, you have to factor in when arbitration rights and UFA status kick in, the risk of a limited history upon which to base decisions, and the downstream impact on the rest of the club's salary structure. There's also the quandary over being strong enough to defend your position, without causing an irreparable rift in the player/club relationship.  While all of the participants are professionals, and should understand how the game is played, it doesn't always work that way.

In Bobrovsky's case, parties reached a compromise deal.  Bobrovsky got big dollars, and the club got a limited term that ends while Bobrovsky is still an RFA.   There's no reason to think that the same model won't work for Johansen.  The devil's in the details, of course, and the parties are working on those outside the public eye, as they should.  There's plenty of cap room, and no reason to think that both sides don't want to make a deal.  The club has the hammer, but the guess here is that they won't need to use it.

The other source of consternation to many was the loss of three existing roster members to free agency:  Jack Skille (Islanders), Blake Comeau (Penguins) and Derek MacKenzie (Panthers) all will be moving on.  MacKenzie seemed to stir the most profound reaction among the fans, which is understandable given his tenure with the Blue Jackets, and his effort night in and night out.  For me, however, MacKenzie's departure was the easiest to understand.  At 33, MacKenzie was the senior member of the Blue Jackets, and was not moving off the fourth line.  Florida gave him a three-year deal at $1.3 million per, which represented a 33% pay increase, without any real performance justification beneath it.  In the brutal world of professional sports personnel management, MacKenzie's skill set is a relatively cheap and readily available commodity, and with several youngsters pushing from below, Columbus was not about to invest long term dollars on a 33-year-old fourth liner.  All the best to DMac in Florida, but his time here had expired. 

The Skille ($750K, 1 year in New York) and Comeau ($700K, 1 year in Pittsburgh) deals are more perplexing to me.  Comeau particularly brought some real value during the course of the season, and despite his inconsistency and propensity to take the bad penalty now and again.  He signed for a $300,000 decrease in salary -- certainly affordable for a club with $15 million in cap space.  As for Skille, I thought he was underutilized on the big club last year, as his speed and shooting accuracy are coveted commodities, particularly with Todd Richards'  apparent shift of emphasis to speed and skill.  Since the fourth line is wide open, having Comeau and Skille on the wings for a combined $1.5 million or so would not seem to be a bad investment. 

There are two other aspects of the current roster that give me a bit of pause.  First, I still don't understand how guys like Skille and Comeau can be jetissoned, despite making peanuts, and Jared Boll retains a roster spot at a salary more than Skille and Comeau . . . combined.  Also more than Atkinson, Calvert, Letestu, Hjalmarsson, Jenner, Gibbons, Savard, Prout and McElhinney.  I won't beat a dead horse here, but Boll does not even fight that well any more, and his other skills are not in the same league with anyone else on the roster.  Does he have blackmail photographs of key front office personnel?  That's a hard one to justify.

I also am not a big fan of the Curtis McElhinney signing.  Yes, I know he makes only $600K, but I'm not sure that the backup goaltending role is one that you want to go cheap with, particularly when there were lots of pretty darn good goaltenders on the market this year.  It's not that McElhinney is awful -- he's not.  But he has an AHL-level glove, tends to wander away from the crease, and  -- most importantly -- the club does not play as well in front of him.  They tend to collapse, and provide far too much time and space at the points, creating more opportunities instead of fewer. 

Having said all of that, it 's obvious that we do not have the quantity or quality of information that the front office possesses, and have no idea of the individual quirks or assets that players might have that are relatively invisible at the public level.  More importantly, the quality of the club's problems has improved dramatically over the past few years, thanks to the efforts of the new regime.  If we're arguing about the composition of the fourth line and the backup goaltender, things must be pretty good.

Indeed, things are pretty good.  The acquisition of Scott Hartnell promises to be an absolute steal, at least for a few years.  The trade of Matt Frattin for Jerry D'Amigo seems like a zero risk deal that could yield a reliable fourth liner.  Both Prout and Savard were re-signed at reasonable levels, and the draft, led by insanely skilled Sonny Milano, seems to have been solid.  However, it is the acquisition of Brian Gibbons that has me really intrigued.  Gibbons, you will recall, was a thorn in the Blue Jackets' side during the playoffs, before being injured, and New York Ranger fans will tell you that he tormented them during the next round.

Gibbons appeared in just 41 games for the Penguins, notching 5 goals, 12 assists and 17 points.   What is more illuminating is that those numbers came in just 11:56 of ice time.  Gibbons is the classic example of a skilled player trapped in an organization with a surplus of talent at his position.  Put him in a new environment, with enhanced responsibility, and he could blossom.  See Foligno, Nick   At $750K, this is potential grand larceny, as he has that speed/skill combination that Richards indicates we need, all in a Cam Atkinson-sized package.

If you can stand unpleasant memories, here is Gibbons' short-handed goal against the Blue Jackets in the playoffs.  Watch, but also listen to Pierre McGuire's commentary:

Before factoring in the prospective newcomers to the squad, including prospects Wennberg, Rychel and Dano, as well as D'Amigo, Hjalmarsson and Gibbons, the Blue Jackets have a top nine of Johansen, Anisimov, Dubinsky, Jenner, Foligno, Horton, Atkinson, Hartnell and Calvert.  Lots of clubs would crave that line-up, and with Scott Hartnell -- who just turned 32 -- assuming the title of Oldest Player, the roster is not even close to reaching its prime.

On the financial side, Columbus has $15 million in cap space, more than enough to handle the Johansen deal, get Erixon and Tropp re-signed, and have some buffer set aside for next year, when Dubinsky and Foligno are due for new deals.  There's likely enough room for another deal this year, as Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay need to make moves to fill out rosters under the cap.  (As always, thanks to the incredible folks at www.capgeek.com for all of the salary and cap information). 

So, while we can all nitpick at this deal or that deal, the big picture is pretty damn good in Columbus at the moment.  Sure, we may be relying on some youngsters, but we have a whole raft of guys who now have a full season plus playoff experience under their belts.  We need to see all of these guys in action, and see what else Jarmo & John may have up their sleeves.   There are no sure things in professional sports, but there aren't too many clubs in better situations entering the dog days of the off-season.

 Patience, young grasshopper.  All will be well. 

An in depth look at the season of Brand Saad.

In his second season with the team full time, Brandon Saad again impressed the league. He will enter this coming season on the final year of his Entry Level Contract (ELC) and become a Restricted Free Agent at the end of the season. Given his promise and his past performance, I think we are safe to assume he will be signed by the Blackhawks.

Saad had a P/60 (Points Per 60 minutes) rate of 2.171 in 46 games for the Blackhawks last season. This season his P/60 was 1.909 in 78 games during the regular season. There are a few reasons for this. First, the season was shortened due to the lockout so there was a shorter time to sustain a relatively high P/60. Second, during the 2012-13 season, Saad spent most of his time on a line with Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa. I'm sure this is not news to you, but they are fairly good at scoring. Third, during the 2013-14 season, Saad spent his time with a number of different linemates including Andrew Shaw, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Brandon Pirri, Kris Versteeg, Bryan Bickell and Michal Handzus.

His 1.909 P/60 is still very respectable. It places him 88^th in the league at 5v5 (among forwards with at least 500 minutes of TOI) and is comparable to the rates of Ryan O'Reilly (COL), Reilly Smith (BOS), David Perron (EDM) and James van Riemsdyk (TOR) this season. On the season, his points pace ranked him above Jeff Carter (LAK), Henrik and Daniel Sedin (VAN), Rick Nash (NYR), Evander Kane (WPG), Vladimir Sobotka (STL), Valeri Nichushkin (DAL), Alex Ovechkin (WSH), Zach Parise (MIN) and many others.

(please click on graphs and charts to view a larger image)

Here is a graph of Saad CF% at 5v5 Score Close for every regular season game. This is offset against his Zone Start Percentage Relative, which is just a way to see if he got more advantageous (i.e. more offensive zone) starts or less than his teammates for the particular game. I've highlighted the 50% (or positive) possession line in yellow.

Saad's puck possession play was really quite something all season long as you can see. In terms of Fenwick For Percentage (FF%) at 5v5 Score Close, Saad posted 58.1%, which ranked 10^th in the league* and 2^nd on the Blackhawks in this metric. The players above him include possession darlings like Anze Kopitar and Patrice Bergeron. His Corsi For Percentage (CF%) numbers at 5v5 Score Close are equally as impressive. Saad registered a 58.5% CF%, which was good for 13^th in the league* and 2^nd on the Blackhawks. Simply put, Saad was very selfish this season and did not like to allow the opposing team to shoot the puck. His CA20 (Corsi Against Per 20) rate of 14.501 was 13^th among forwards and his FA20 (Fenwick Against Per 20) rate of 10.662 was 6^th among forwards in the league*.

*5v5 Score Close among Forwards with 300 minutes or more TOI

I put together these WOWY charts so we can compare how Saad performed with his primary linemates last season and this season.

Last season when Saad was on a line with Toews and Hossa, the trio posted very impressive numbers together. Away from those linemates, keeping in mind that the sample size is very small, Saad did not have as impressive possession numbers. That changed this season. With Shaw and/or Kane, Saad and his linemates were well over 55% CF% at 5v5. Saad himself, with a more varied number of linemates away from Shaw and Kane was above this mark as well. Playing with Saad improved both Shaw and Kane's possession numbers.

As we can see, last season Saad was with Michal Frolik and Kane when he was not on the Toews line. While their numbers together were well above the 50% mark, Saad still had higher possession numbers away from them. This season, we again see the big spike when Saad played with Toews, even to the point of increasing Toews' possession numbers. Playing with Saad improved the puck possession game of all of these various linemates including Brandon Pirri, Kris Versteeg, Bryan Bickell, Michal Handzus and Patrick Sharp.

Saad was more infrequently on lines with the players in the chart above. The thing to keep in mind as we get into this chart is sample size and usage. We see from last season, that Saad played with Marcus Kruger, Dave Bolland and Andrew Shaw a little bit with mixed results. This season, Saad's time with Marcus Kruger and Ben Smith often meant taking on the checking line duties or being tasked to carry the offensive load with linemates not known for having a lot of offensive firepower. We again see that playing with Marian Hossa drastically improved the already impressive possession numbers for both players.

As an example of how these combinations affect each other, here is a chart from this season when Saad was with Toews and had either Hossa or Versteeg as the other wing.

When with Toews and Hossa, the possession numbers for the trio are well above 64-66% at 5v5. When Hossa is removed and Versteeg is slotted in, those marks drop to just above 60%. This is still very impressive, but it illustrates the effects of having a playmaker versus a passenger at the other wing.

Below is a chart showing how Saad fared against the defensemen around the league he faced most often. Again, the sample size here is fairly small and the numbers are at 5v5 so there are Score Effects mixed in that may skew the numbers in either direction. For example, the Blackhawks got early leads on the Winnipeg Jets a few times early in games. The Jets then made an offensive push to try to score and the Blackhawks collapsed back into a defensive shell to "protect" their lead. This would make Saad's possession numbers lower in those games. The opposite may also inflate Saad's numbers if the Blackhawks got behind in the game and made an offensive push. Because of this (Score Effects), we prefer to use CF% at Score Close to remove that excessive noise in the numbers, but unfortunately, that data is not very easily collected. Just keep that in mind when reviewing these.

Saad had the most ice time (over 30 minutes) against Shea Weber (NSH), Roman Josi (NSH), Dustin Byfuglien (WPG) and Erik Johnson (COL). He faced Jan Hejda (COL), Ryan Suter (MIN), Marco Scandella (MIN), Andre Benoit (COL), Brenden Dillon (DAL), Tobias Enstrom (WPG), Zach Bogosian (WPG), Jared Spurgeon (MIN), Jordie Benn (DAL) and Alex Goligoski (DAL) for at least 20 minutes each. The remainder of the defensemen listed had at least 10 minutes of ice time at 5v5 versus Saad but under 20 minutes. His lowest possession mark came against Jay Bouwmeester of the St. Louis Blues. His highest possession mark came against Dalton Prout of the Columbus Blue Jackets.

This chart shows how Saad fared against the forwards he faced most often during the season. The same sample size and Score Effects limitations apply here as well. Saad had over 30 minutes of ice time at 5v5 against Jamie McGinn (COL). He logged over 20 minutes of ice time against Ryan O'Reilly (COL), Shawn Horcoff (DAL), Zach Parise (MIN), Matt Duchene (COL), Mike Fisher (NSH), Nino Niederreiter (MIN), Valeri Nichushkin (DAL), Olli Jokinen (WPG), Nick Spaling (NSH), Maxime Talbot (COL) and Ryan Garbutt (DAL). All of the others shown on the chart had between 10 and 20 minutes of ice time against Saad. Saad posted his highest head to head possession mark against Boyd Gordon (EDM) and his lowest against Brad Richardson (VAN).

In the playoffs, I manually tracked the Blackhawks offensive zone entries to get a better idea of how they move the puck from the neutral zone into the offensive zone. You can check out my breakdown of the full data *here. Brandon Saad, if you didn't already notice, is a neutral zone monster. Entering the offensive zone with control of the puck leads to more shots and thus opportunities to score. Looking at a player's controlled entry percentage tells us how often the player tries to carry the puck into the offensive zone as opposed to dumping the puck in and trying to regain possession (dump ins).

Here are some charts of how well Saad did at carrying the puck in and generating shots from his carry ins during the playoffs.

As you can see, I used the entry rates at Score Close for each series to give a more accurate picture of how Saad performed under the pressure of a close game. The overall graph indicates all 5v5 play during the playoffs. The graph of Saad's controlled entries and Corsi For by game is a terrific demonstration of his ability to create offensive chances.

Overall, Saad's second full season in the NHL was a very good one. He caught the eye of many hockey analysts during the regular season and the playoffs for his strong play, as evidenced in Dimitri Filipovic's article about Western Conference Forwards for the Sporting News here. With an opportunity to play on the second line with Brad Richards and Patrick Kane this coming season, look for Saad to continue to grow his game even further.

Overall Season Grade: A

*all data used herein was collected from:

www.extraskater.com

stats.hockeyanalysis.com

www.nhl.com

and through the tracking of Jen LC (@RegressedPDO on Twitter)

It's assumed that the netminder, who went 4-4-3 in 11 AHL games during the 2013-2014 season, is slated for the 5th organizational goalie spot.

The Syracuse Crunch have signed goalie Allen York to a  two-way AHL contract. York will presumably be the organization’s 5th goalie, a hole that desperately needed to be filled. York will probably land with the Crunch's ECHL affiliate in Florida.

Here is the official release from the Crunch:

Crunch sign Allen York to AHL contract

Syracuse, N.Y. – The Syracuse Crunch have signed goaltender Allen York to a two-way AHL contract, Crunch general manager Julien BriseBois announced today.

York, 25, spent the 2013-14 season with four AHL clubs (Charlotte, Texas, Rockford and Syracuse) and two ECHL teams (Evansville and South Carolina). The 6-foot-3, 194-pound goaltender from Wetaskiwin, Alberta, started in four games for the Crunch and posted a 1-2-1 record including a 39-save shutout of Hershey Feb. 22, 2014.

York has appeared in 40 career AHL games for Springfield, Charlotte, Texas, Rockford and Syracuse compiling a 21-12-3 record, 2.57 goals-against average and .907 save percentage. He has also played 36 ECHL games with Chicago, Evansville and South Carolina amassing a record of 18-12-4 with a 2.97 goals-against average and .902 save percentage.

York was drafted by the Columbus in the sixth round, 158th overall, at the 2007 NHL Draft. He reached the NHL during the 2011-12 season and went 3-2-0 in 11 games for Columbus Blue Jackets.

Going on the assumption that Ben Bishop and Evgeni Nabokov will be holding down the fort in Tampa Bay while Kristers Gudlevskis and Andrei Vasilevski do their tour of duty in the AHL, one can see that the only spot left in the organization for a netminder was for a 5th goalie. Tampa Bay does have two other goalie prospects in Clay Witt and Adam Wilcox, but both are returning to school this fall and will be unavailable.

York should be slated in as a depth signing who will get minutes with a Syracuse affiliate until needed by the Crunch. York has a rather small sample size in the AHL, but was capable as a stop-gap last season when the Crunch needed him. Should Vasilevski do as well or better than anticipated and get called up before the end of the AHL season, York could then be called on to be the back up behind Gudlevskis in Syracuse. Tampa Bay must have been impressed enough with what they have seen to place York in that potential position.

York has clearly had a career where he's bounced around quite a bit and experienced many different league and game situations. This contract should provide some stability for the netminder, and that kind of stability will only benefit Syracuse should York be called upon for any reason. This is great news for Crunch fans, especially considering the, uh, interesting situation Syracuse found itself in this past season when it came to finding a stopgap goalie to backup York at the last minute during his first tenure with the Crunch.

Thought I'd post the current version of my organizational roster spreadsheet.

Wild Season ticket holders will no longer receive a book of tickets at their door step. Instead they will receive a digital card that can be swiped at the gate. The Wild will be the first pro franchise in the Twin Cities market to transition to the new technology.

"The time is right to make this transition," said Wild Chief Operating Officer Matt Majka in an interview with the Star Tribune. "Our fans have become accustomed to using the convenience of online and mobile technology in many other areas of their lives."

A seat locator receipt is printed at the gate once the card is swiped.

For those season ticket holders that love to spread the wealth, sharing your investment is now done through the "My Wild Account." You can print off the ticket stubs there or send the link to print in an email to your family and friends. Those that split the tickets among a group of people, multiple digital cards can be made.

The technology transition has some ticket holders love the nostalgia of the ticket stub:

@gilesferrell The sentimental "ticket stub keeper" in me just cried.

— Gretchen Maslowski (@EskomoKisses) July 8, 2014

@gilesferrell just like ski resort season pass. Just wish a ticket printed online wasn't a logo-less cumbersome 8-1/2x11 piece of ugliness

— Lynn Keller (@MNlady4WILD) July 8, 2014

The card will look and feel like any other ID or credit card. Here's what the Columbus Blue Jackets STH's use:

via assets.bizjournals.com

This is just one of the many upgrades that the Wild and the Xcel Energy Center is implementing to help improve the fan experience. That includes a brand spanking new HD center-hanging video board and upgraded ribbon boards that line the fascia of the suite and 200 levels.

Here comes the DUUUUB.

In a bit of unexpected good news, the Blue Jackets announced that they've come to terms this morning with pending UFA Brandon Dubinsky on a six year contract extension.

Terms haven't been announced yet, but Dubi was due to make $4.2 million in the 2014-15 season, the final year of the deal he signed with the New York Rangers prior to the Rick Nash trade.

Dubinsky has been vocal about how much he likes playing in Columbus, and that he wanted to remain part of the team's "core group."

The deal will carry him through the 2020-21 season, and gives the team a solid 2nd line C in the prime years of his career who can be a threat with or without the puck. If I had to guess, I'd expect that we'll find out the deal is in the $32-36 million range, putting him in the same salary tier as the recently acquired Scott Hartnell or Nathan Horton.

Edit: ESPN's Pierre LeBrun reports that Dubinsky will be making an AAV of $5.85 million / year with a No Move / No Trade clause. That puts the total cost of the deal at just over $35 million when all is said and done.

One of the players who wore a rotating "A" during the year, and who was frequently acting as a "voice" for the dressing room to the fans and media, there's a lot of speculation that the press conference announced for 11am today will include awarding him the Captaincy to go with the long term extension, but that's only fan speculation at this point - the team continues to be incredibly cagey about their leadership group, but I have to admit that if you're going to hand it out at this point, giving it to a guy who just made a big long term commitment makes a lot of sense.

The last interesting tidbit in this signing is the fact that Dubinsky's agent, Kurt Overhardt, also represents current RFA Ryan Johansen. Perhaps we'll see some movement on that front now, particularly since this seems like the perfect "real world" example of how the club is willing to follow a shorter term deal with a longer term reward.

As mentioned earlier, the team will be holding a presser at Nationwide today at 11, and we'll update you with any news that comes our way.

Here's the walk for the day- There's a few GREAT articles, including a beast by Mr. Russo.

Wild News

A New Face In The State Of Hockey: Cody Almond | Team of 18,001
Cody Almond is (back) in the State of Hockey. Come (re)meet him!

New title for Wild's Andrew Brunette: Assistant coach | Russo's Rants | StarTribune.com
Bruno has a new title, and new responsibilities: Assistant Coach.

Expansive Wild update: GM on Nino, Kuemper, extending contracts and trading for a defenseman | Russo's Rants | StarTribune.com
Maybe the most expansive source of information on Wild happenings. READ IT... all 2,600 words.

Minnesota Wild: Christian Folin seeks smooth transition to NHL | TwinCities.com
A well-written piece on Folin's goal to be in the NHL, and the work he's doing to get there

Minnesota Wild's Matt Dumba determined to stick this time | TwinCities.com
Dumba55 is looking to stick around in the NHL, and stay out of Iowa.

AHL Realignment Moves Iowa Wild To West Division | Gone Puck Wild
The Baby Wild are moving tot he West Division... hopefully to find more success than last season.

Winnipeg vs. Minnesota; Which is the best market? | The Hockey Writers
Scientific (not) proof that Minnesota is MUCH better than the Wall.

Zach Parise to play in celebrity softball game - NHL.com - NHL Insider
Minnesota Wild forward Zach Parise will participate in and All-Star Softball Game at Target Field on Sunday.

Off the Trail

Penguins GM Rutherford on Crosby: 'No final decision has been made on surgery at this point' | theScore
Sid the Kid may (or may not) need surgery.

Kasperi Kapanen signs with Pittsburgh Penguins - NHL.com - News
The Pittsburgh Penguins have signed 2014 first-round pick Kasperi Kapanen to a three-year, entry-level contract

Columbus Blue Jackets' Sonny Milano is out to show he's more than a video sensation - NHL.com - NHL Insider
Columbus Blue Jackets prospect Sonny Milano is out to show he's more than just a guy who does puck tricks

Your open thread and links for the day, including prospect info, some contract news, and more.

Montreal Canadiens Links

• Martin Lapointe is the man tasked with taking care of prospect development, and his latest project is Michael McCarron.
• Andrew Berkshire examined how Scherbak-a-mania is taking over Montreal.
• In case you missed it, here are Andrew's final notes on development camp. Here's the gallery from day 5.
• Our very own Veronica Canete met a certain Olympic champion Habs goalie, read the story here.
• All roads lead to the NHL, eventually. (Sekac story, in French)

Around the NHL

• Check out the top 5 shootout moves from the development camps around the league.
• From the rumour bin: Apparently Johnny Oduya is on the trade block.
• Former Habs prospect Louis Leblanc has signed a one year contract extension with the Ducks.
• Extra Skater now has all the numbers up from the 2010-11 season available. Huzzah!
• The Buffalo Sabres wasted no time signing the 2nd overall pick from the 2014 draft, Sam Reinhart.
• Brandon Dubinskysigned a six-year contract extension with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

New Jersey Devils & Related Hockey Links for 7/13/14

Your links for today:

Devils Links

Marty's agent says he isn't against waiting until after the season begins to sign. [Fire and Ice]

The Devils prospects camp begins today. Here's the full list of attendees: [Fire and Ice]

Hockey Links

Rich Peverley is upbeat about his recovery, but his future is still uncertain. [PHT]

The Blue Jackets signed Brandon Dubinsky to a six-year extension. [Eye on Hockey]

Feel free to discuss these and any other hockey-related stories in the comments below.

The Rangers top offensive player was up to his old tricks this past season after an early injury scare.

Few faces in the Rangers organization are as polarizing as Rick Nash. After being acquired by New York in the summer of 2012, Nash has gone from savior, to playoff dud, and everything in between. In reality, Nash is still the Rangers best forward, and one of the more dynamic offensive talents in all of hockey. Let's explore a bit deeper.

Early concussion, then lots of goals

Evaluating Rick Nash can be simplified to this split: When he's on the ice, he's effective, and when he's not, he isn't. After speculation he was playing in the 2013 playoffs banged up, Nash went down after just the third game of the 2013-14 season with a concussion. The monumental injury to the Rangers top offensive threat carried a bit more weight considering this wasn't Nash's first head injury. With New York going into an early season slide, Nash's injury couldn't have come at a worse time. He had registered three points in his first three games of the season, and after beginning his Rangers career in a lockout shortened season, sans a true training camp and a period to get acquainted with the franchise, it looked like Nash was arriving in a big way.

Which Nash subsequently did when he came back from injury. Nash scored 26 goals in the 62 games he played after returning from his concussion, or an 82 game pace of 34. Nine of his goals were game-winners, and Nash went through a stretch in January during which he scored 11 goals in as many games. Heck, Nash even drove possession with a CF% of 54.2, and rel. CF% of 2.6.

All of this adds up to Nash being a very effective, very dangerous forward. His 5v5 goals/60 are one of the highest rates in the all league. The players around him are getting better, whether Alain Vigneault decides to flank him with Martin St. Louis or Chris Kreider, with the playmaking Derek Stepan down the middle. Nash even rediscovered his penalty killing ability thanks to Team Canada head coach Mike Babcock.

There's a lot to like about this guy.

The stupid postseason that everyone keeps mischaracterizing

It doesn't matter what camp you're in, and whether you support the use of advanced analytics in hockey or not, these are simply facts. Through a 783 regular season game career, Nash has scored on 12.4 percent of the shots he's taken. In this year's playoffs, Nash's three goals on 83 shots equated to a 3.6 shooting percentage. Those numbers don't add up, but they do say a few things.

For one, the rate Nash was scoring about at that active a shooting clip was unsustainable, meaning that should a player of Nash's skill level go through another 25 game, 83 shot postseason, and he's more likely to score about 10 goals. Players don't also accidentally take 83 shots. It requires a high level of puck possession, which in case there was any question, is a good thing.

No, the Rangers will not be trading Nash, nor should they. All of this talk of Nash's effort level, or his ability to play in big games are cute, fuzzy, undefinable elements. The rate at which he scores is pretty clearcut, and to abandon that talent after six rounds of ineffective postseason performances is ludicrous. The reason why Nash isn't dropping the gloves every game like he did against the Blue Jackets is its dumb for your goal scoring forward of a concussion history to go out and get punched in the head.

Erixon gets a 1-year-deal to remain with Columbus.

The Blue Jackets announced that they've come to terms on a one-year contract with defenseman Tim Erixon for the upcoming season. Erixon got a small cup of coffee with the Jackets all while having a great season in AHL Springfield. Time will tell whether he can crack the big club's lineup on a more regular basis this season.

This signing leaves just one RFA left for the Jackets, and of course it's the big fish: Ryan Johansen.

I love this man an awful lot, but I'll try to make an objective case for why he's awesome.

Marian Gaborik Corsi, 2008-2014

I'm just going to go ahead and straight up copy-and-paste Andrew's explanation for what these pretty numbers mean, since he can probably explain it better than I can anyway: This table expresses Corsi as a rate stat; the numbers represent on-ice shot differential per 60 minutes (i.e., in 2013-14 the Kings/Blue Jackets attempted 4 more shots/60 than their opponents when Gaborik was on the ice). Corsi On is just raw on-ice shot differential. A player's Expected Corsi is calculated based on the difficulty of their minutes, factoring in zone starts, quality of competition, and quality of teammates (you can read about the formula here). That number is then compared to how the player actually did, and the difference is dCorsi. I also included Corsi Relative (on-ice Corsi minus off-ice Corsi) if you prefer that to dCorsi. Except in cases of extreme deployment, the two are going to be similar.

Also it's worth keeping in mind that Gaborik moved around a lot over the last few years, which will make his dCorsi numbers a little less reliable. However, the numbers that it's actually produced don't seem to vary that much, save for that 07-08 Minnesota number. Throw that out and they actually look oddly consistent, given all the movement.

Positives

When you think of the Kings, I think one of the first things that probably comes to mind is "good possession team". Yes, obviously. What's another thing that might come to mind after that? "Stanley Cups", sure. "Clean and honorable", yes, following the pristine example of their captain. But eventually you'll probably get around to shooting percentage, and their struggles with it. The Kings are not exactly a shooting percentage powerhouse, that much is for sure. As you can see here with this excellent graph, the NHL average shooting percentage tends to fluctuate a bit, but in the current era it's usually somewhere in the high 8s/low 9s range. The Kings, on the other hand, often tend to fall below that average.

As you can see, that's 3 out of the past 4 years where LA's shooting percentage lagged below the league average (and the one year it didn't was the lockout-shortened campaign). Some digital ink has already been spilled questioning whether or not there's something about the Kings' system that suppresses shooting percentage, but that's not really the point here. If we've established that the Kings are a great puck possession team that tends to have trouble with shooting percentage, wouldn't you like to see them get a player with a recorded history of influencing shooting percentage in a positive way for his team? Hey, good news: this year at the trade deadline there was just such a guy available!

All those stats are regular season, of course. So going back to 2007-08, with the exception of 35 games with the Rangers in 12-13 (and hey, that's when he fell out of favor with their idiot head coach and got traded, how about that!), teams have consistently shot better with Marian Gaborik on the ice than without him. As you all should know by now, shooting percentage is a heavily luck-based stat and should be taken with a grain of salt, and it's always worth noting that some of these sample sizes are a bit small (and more on that in a second). But that's still such an impressive record over the course of six years, with three different teams, that you would have to conclude that Gaborik has a positive influence on shooting percentage when he's on the ice. This isn't something that's counter-intuitive, either; Gaborik is a three-time 40-goal scorer in the NHL, which would certainly imply a high level of shooting talent. And it's easy to picture teams taking extra care to cover him in the offensive zone, perhaps even drawing double coverage, opening up passing lanes for teammates to end up with high-quality shots. Gaborik is an immensely effective offensive weapon, and his past possession stats suggest he will not be anything close to an anchor for the Kings in that department either. In essence, he's exactly what the doctor ordered for the shooting-percentage-starved Kings. In fact, Gaborik's on-ice shooting percentage last year was a full point better than the next best player (Alec Martinez, at 8.6%). This is a skill set the Kings desperately needed, and they were clearly a better team for it after acquiring him. That makes his resigning good news in my book.

As for Gaborik's zone entry stuff, as Nick laid out in his post on the subject, Gaborik was fantastic in his short time with the Kings during the regular season. He lead the team by carrying the puck in with control in 73% of his entries, a figure that Nick described as "stunning" (second place was another tiny sample size guy, Linden Vey, at 66%, followed by Kopitar at 65%, so he was way above even the next few guys on that list). Unsurprisingly given how often Gaborik entered the zone with control, the Kings generated more shots per Gaborik's zone entries than any other player at 0.69 (second was Kopitar again at 0.59, so again he was far ahead). It is worth noting here that the Kings in general carried the puck in with control far more late in the season (i.e. when Gaborik was on the team) and it probably had something to do with their weak competition (they played such luminaries as Edmonton twice, Calgary twice, Toronto, Winnipeg, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Washington, etc) in that portion of their schedule. But even with those caveats, those are still very encouraging numbers, and it will be interesting to see what he does in this regard in a full season next year.

Negatives

That is, of course, if he plays a full season. I don't like blaming a player for injuries because I think it's usually not really in their control, but you can't really not mention his injury history. He's played a full 82 games just once in the past six seasons (though he did play 47 out of 48 in the lockout year), and last year was no exception there, as he played just 22 games for the Blue Jackets before he was traded to the Kings on March 5th, sitting out with a sprained left knee in November and then a broken collarbone in December. The only good news there is that neither injury seems to be related to his frequent groin problems that have plagued him off-and-on throughout his career. If both were just freak accidents, hopefully you cross your fingers and hope for the best. He's actually followed a pretty consistent pattern of alternating one year with frequent injury troubles/one year without as much over and over and over again, so perhaps he's "due" for another healthy year! Yeah!

Also, he's old and stuff- 32 to be exact, and he'll turn 33 in February of next year- so that's also certainly not a positive, especially since he's now under contract for the next seven years. I think it's safe to predict he should have at least one more season at a top level, maybe even two or three, but beyond that his decline could get steep in a hurry (especially if it's exasperated by yet more injuries).

Roman Emperor Comparable: Uhhh...

You guys, I don't know crap about Roman history. Andrew actually offered to pick an emperor for me, but that seemed just kind of fake and inauthentic to me, and we should probably avoid fake and inauthentic things in this article. This is my season review, so I shouldn't try to piggyback off of Andrew's impressive knowledge on another subject. I could do what Eric did for his review and just not compare him to anything at all, but that's boring (and this article clearly isn't long enough yet). So the real solution is to find some other subject I consider myself an expert on, like Andrew did with Roman history. Japanese rock bands? Yes, but none of you will know what the hell I'm talking about (not that you did with the Roman emperors either; put your hands down, readers, who are you kidding, you did not). Old pro wrestling? Aha, there we go, that should work. So, because 2000 WWF is the absolute peak of North American pro wrestling (and do not argue with me about this because you are wrong), here is your:

2000 WWF Superstar Comparable: Chris Jericho

Chris Jericho is a relatively easy choice for Marian Gaborik's comparable. Like Gaborik, Jericho came over from a poorly-run organization. If we pretend Jericho was traded for Jeff Jarrett, who debuted in WCW a few months after Jericho first appeared in the WWF in the second half of 1999, the analogy makes even more sense; I like Jarrett, but the difference between Gaborik and Matt Frattin is roughly equivalent to the difference between Jericho and "J-E-Double-F, J-A-Double-R, E-Double-T-HA!", no matter how many NWA World Titles he would later book himself to win. And like Gaborik's on-ice shooting percentage boost was exactly what the Kings needed, Jericho brought a much-needed dose of workrate to the WWF's famously bad undercards. Quick, try to name a great WWF undercard match in 1999 that didn't involve a ladder or Shane McMahon taking bumps through tables. It's a trick question, 'cause it doesn't exist. On the other hand, Jericho spent most of 2000 having phenomenal Intercontiental Title matches with a guy I'm not going to mention 'cause thinking about him makes me sad. His weird on-again, off-again feud with Triple H and his storyline wife Stephanie McMahon (thank god she wasn't really his wife, that would just be awkward and give him way too much backstage power) was another highlight, producing the infamous WWF Title reign that didn't count and culminating in the amazing Last Man Standing match on the undercard of Fully Loaded 2000 (a criminally underrated show, by the way; people were just mad at the time that none of the newer guys went over, but who cares about that now). He was a big reason why the WWF actually had good pay-per-views in 2000, instead of just good pay-per-view main events. Big difference.

Going Forward

As mentioned already, Gaborik is old, but unless he suddenly has a significant drop off next season, he should continue to be a great driver of offense and on-ice shooting percentage for the Kings. Of course, the big concern with him will always be whether or not he can remain healthy, but barring injury trouble, he should help the Kings produce more offense next season.

Grade

If you're willing to give his partial season a full grade, and let's just do it because who the hell wants me to say "incomplete" here, I fail to see how you give him anything other than an A. Of course, it helps that he scored fourteen freaking goals in the playoffs and was one of the primary reasons why the Kings won their second Cup in three years. We should probably give him some credit for that too, even though it's unlikely he'll shoot 20% every spring he spends with the Kings. Actually, you know what, let's just assume he's going to do exactly that, because why not?